Evaluation of the commercial space potential

Commercial space potential and allocation by location type

Based on the analysis of the demand for commercial space and the regional supply of commercial space, the potential for commercial space is evaluated according to location type. Finally, statements are made on the statistical scope of the existing supply of commercial space and exemplary guidelines for future commercial space policy are presented.

The evaluation of the total area potential is based on five location types , which essentially differ with regard to the location criteria of area size, emission possibilities or building rights in accordance with the BauNVO, as well as the quality of transport connections and area design (Table 4).

The maximum commercial space potentials shown in Fig. 9 result for the location types . Due to the overlapping location requirements, multiple allocations result for many potentials. For this reason, the maximum potentials per site type cannot be added up. The "primary use" category reflects the location typology preferred by the respective municipality, while "alternative use" contains other possible use groups.

• Industry and production (up to 607 ha): Potential sites of at least 15 ha each are located in Barsinghausen/Eckerde, Barsinghausen/Groß Munzel, Lehrte/Immensen, Hanover/Anderten, Hanover/Kronsberg Nord, Hanover-Misburg/Deurag-Nerag, Sehnde/Höver-Nord, Springe/Osttangente, Uetze/Dollbergen-West, Wedemark/Gailhof-Erweiterung Nord and Wunstorf/Trimodalstandort. The potential has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year with a decrease of 2 % (621 ha).
• Trade and commerce (up to 360 ha): The site potential includes many areas, some of which are very small. Areas with at least 10 ha are located in Burgdorf/Nordwest (3rd BA), Garbsen-Berenbostel/Farrel, Garbsen-Osterwald/nördlich Koppelknechtsdamm, Laatzen/Erweiterung Gleidingen, Neustadt/Leinstraße, Pattensen/Gewerbepark Süd, Uetze/Hänigsen-Kaliwerk and Wunstorf/Niedere Wanne (3rd BA). The amount of space available here has fallen slightly by 4 % compared to the previous year (375 ha).
• Logistics (up to 177 ha): Logistics space potential of at least 10 ha includes Barsinghausen/Groß Munzel, Hanover/Anderten, Wedemark-Gailhof/north of L 310 and Wunstorf-Süd/Trimodalstandort. The logistics space potential has fallen considerably by 20 % (2022: 220 ha).
• Services (up to 78 ha): These sites have good public transport connections and are almost exclusively located in Hannover and the medium-sized centers, although they are very small sites to a greater extent than craft and commercial sites. Sites with at least 3 ha of potential space are located in Burgdorf/Nordwest, Burgwedel/Kleinburgwedel, Garbsen/Im Fuchsfeld, Hannover/Lahe, Isernhagen/Kirchhorst-Trennemoor, Isernhagen/Altwarmbüchen westl. A 7, Langenhagen/Krähenwinkel, Neustadt/Moorgärten, and Wedemark/Mellendorf. The area potential has decreased by 18 % (2022: 95 ha).
• Knowledge and technology-oriented industry (7.8 ha): These are five sites in Garbsen/Research Campus, Hannover-Bemerode/Brüsseler Strasse and Hannover-Marienwerder/Science Park Science Area 30X (three sub-areas).

Calculated range of commercial space potential as an early warning indicator

In the last ten years, a total of around 384 ha of commercial space has been developed and sold. Logistics and wholesale accounted for around 40 % of take-up, business-related services for 19 %, industry and production for 15 %, trade and commerce for 9 % and science and technology-related uses for around 4 %. Together, these usage groups account for around 88 % of total take-up.

Looking at the commercial space take-up of the respective municipality in 2023 in relation to the average take-up since 1992, it can be seen that only the state capital Hannover and Wedemark were able to record a take-up above their long-term average.

With 15.7 ha in the state capital and 4.5 ha in Wedemark, these two municipalities also have the largest take-up in absolute terms.

An average period of up to five years is considered realistic for the mobilization of F-plan areas or preview areas until they are ready for construction (urban land-use planning, development, possibly also land acquisition).

Based on the average take-up of commercial space over the last ten years and the supply of commercial space (with a legally binding development plan), the range of available space for the individual municipalities can be estimated in years as a purely statistical figure.

This can serve as an early warning indicator for emerging space bottlenecks. It should be noted that this calculated value is only of limited informative value due to the strong fluctuations in space turnover in the municipalities over the individual years.

For 15 of the 21 member municipalities, the arithmetical range of land available immediately or at a later date with a legally binding development plan is below the critical threshold of five years (Fig. 10). In the 2022 reporting year, this applied to 16 municipalities. In eight municipalities, the land reserves could be exhausted very soon - here the value is less than one year.

For the majority of municipalities, there is still a need to (re-)mobilize commercial space that is ready for marketing in the short term. This applies in particular to the municipalities of Barsinghausen, Burgdorf, Hemmingen, Laatzen, Langenhagen, Seelze, Wennigsen and Wunstorf.