Evaluation of the commercial space potential

Commercial space potential and allocation by location type

Based on the analysis of the demand for commercial space and the regional supply of commercial space, commercial space potentials are evaluated according to location types . Finally, statements are made on the statistical range of the existing supply of commercial space and exemplary guidelines for future commercial space policy are presented.

The evaluation of the total area potential is based on five location types , which differ essentially with regard to the location criteria of area size, emission possibilities or building rights in accordance with the BauNVO as well as the quality of transport connections and area design (Table 4).

The maximum commercial space potentials shown in Fig. 9 result for the location types . Due to the overlapping location requirements, multiple allocations result for many potentials. For this reason, the maximum potentials per site type cannot be added up. The "primary use" category reflects the location typology preferred by the respective municipality, while "alternative use" contains other possible use groups.

• Industry and production (up to 611 ha): Potential sites of at least 15 ha each are located in Barsinghausen/Eckerde, Barsinghausen/Groß Munzel, Lehrte/Immensen, Hannover/Anderten, Hannover/Kronsberg Nord, Hannover-Misburg/Deurag-Nerag, Sehnde/Höver-Nord, Springe/Osttangente, Uetze/Dollbergen-Gasolingelände, Wedemark/Gailhof-Erweiterung Nord and Wunstorf/Trimodalstandort). The potential has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year with an increase of 0.5 % (607 ha).
• Trade and commerce (up to 343 ha): The land potential includes many areas, some of which are very small. Areas with at least 10 ha are located in Burgdorf/Nordwest (3rd BA), Garbsen-West, Garbsen-Osterwald/nördlich Koppelknechtsdamm, Laatzen/Erweiterung Gleidingen, Neustadt/Leinstraße, Pattensen/Gewerbepark Süd, Uetze/Hänigsen-Kaliwerk and Wunstorf/Niedere Wanne (3rd BA). The amount of space available here has fallen slightly by 5 % compared to the previous year (360 ha).
  
• Logistics (up to 186 ha): Logistics space potential of at least 10 ha includes Barsinghausen/Groß Munzel, Hanover/Anderten, Wedemark-Gailhof/north of L 310 and Wunstorf-Süd/Trimodalstandort. The logistics space potential has increased slightly with a share of 5 % (2023: 177 ha).
  
  
• Services (up to 79 ha): These sites have good public transport connections and are almost exclusively located in Hanover and the medium-sized centers, although they are very small sites to a greater extent than craft and trade locations. Sites with at least 3 ha of potential space are located in Burgdorf/Nordwest, Burgwedel/Kleinburgwedel, Garbsen/Im Fuchsfeld, Hannover/Lahe, Isernhagen/Kirchhorst-Trennemoor, Isernhagen/Altwarmbüchen-westlich BAB 7, Langenhagen/Krähenwinkel, Neustadt/Moorgärten, and Wedemark/Mellendorf. The land potential has increased slightly by 1 % (2023: 78 ha).
  
  
• Knowledge and technology-oriented industry (9.3 ha): This involves six sites in Garbsen/Research Campus, Hannover-Bemerode/Brüsseler Strasse, Hannover-Marienwerder/Science Park Science Area 30X (three sub-areas) and Hannover-Kirchrode. The space potential has increased by 19 % compared to the previous year (2023: 7.8 ha).

Calculated range of commercial space potential as an early warning indicator

In the last ten years, a total of around 381 ha of commercial space has been developed and sold. Logistics and wholesale accounted for around 38 % of take-up, business-related services and industry and production for 17 %, trade and commerce for 8 % and science and technology-related uses for around 4 %. Together, these usage groups account for around 85 % of total take-up.

When looking at the take-up of commercial space in each municipality in 2024 in relation to the average take-up since 1992, it can be seen that only Springe was able to record a take-up above the long-term average.

At 7.1 ha in the state capital and 3.9 ha in Springe, these two municipalities recorded the highest take-up in absolute terms.

An average period of up to five years is considered realistic for the mobilization of F-Plan sites or preview sites until they are ready for construction (urban land-use planning, development, possibly also land acquisition). Based on the average commercial space turnover of the last ten years and the commercial space supply (with a legally binding land use plan), the range of available space for the individual municipalities can be estimated in years - as a purely statistical figure.

This can serve as an early warning indicator for emerging land shortages. It should be noted that this calculated value is only of limited informative value due to the strong fluctuations in land take-up in the municipalities over the individual years.

For 14 of the 21 member municipalities, the calculated range of land available immediately or at a later date with a legally binding development plan is below the critical threshold of five years (Fig. 10). In the 2023 reporting year, this applied to 15 municipalities. In seven municipalities, the land reserves could be exhausted very soon - here the value is less than one year.

For the majority of municipalities, there is still a need to (re)mobilize commercial space that is ready for marketing in the short term. This applies in particular to the municipalities of Barsinghausen, Hemmingen, Laatzen, Langenhagen, Seelze, Wennigsen and Wunstorf.